New South Wales remains the most populous state in Australia. This state population has reached 7,987 people as at June 2018. Current growth in residents is coming from a mix of immigration and natural births. While NSW is increasing its residents at a very healthy rate of 1.5%, NSW is no longer the fastest growing state. Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory recorded the highest growth rates of all states and territories at 2.2%. This is followed by Queensland at 1.7%. NSW is a distant fourth.
NSW loses to QLD and VIC in population share
The breakdown of NSW population between the states is very interesting. While NSW is the largest state from Population perspective, it has been losing share to other states. NSW share of Australian population has dropped from over 35% in the noughties to 32% lately.
NSW has been losing share to both Queensland and Victoria. The latest numbers indicate that Queensland gained from late 19% to over 20% over the last 10 years. This trend doesn’t surprise us, Queensland has been slowly gaining ground for a very long time.
If this trend continues, we could see Queensland becoming the second largest state by population in next 50 years. this could be a very interesting outcome. Especially so that Victoria could overtake New South Wales as the most populous state in Australia in the next decade. This could potentially have a very interesting impact on property values.
NSW population has been growing steadily and increased significantly from 2007. This could explain why Sydney properties received so much demand and support. Below table shows NSW population metrics and the growth trend for NSW Population.
Below chart shows that NSW population growth went through three main phases. First phase of rapid growth till 1990, then slower growth between 1990 and 2007, and finally another phase of strong growth thereafter.
We think people make decisions on where to settle or immigrate based on a wide range of variables. However, we think property affordability is a very important variable, especially for internal migration.
The capital of NSW, Sydney remains a very attractive city. This city population keeps growing at very attractive rate. Current Sydney population is over 5.5 million people (5,131,326 at June 2017 to be precise).
We think, Sydney’s population now grows by more than 100,000 people in every year. However, Sydney is losing about 20 thousand people every year to Melbourne and Brisbane.
We could see Queensland becoming the second largest state by population in next 50 years. this could be a very interesting outcome. Victoria could overtake New South Wales as the most populous state in Australia in the next decade. This could potentially have a very interesting impact on property values. We think people make decisions on where to settle or immigrate based on a wide range of variables. And, property affordability is a very important variable. Especially for internal migration. We think, Queensland is very affordable, and is likely to remain very attractive for a long while. Victoria, is also more affordable than NSW. This makes us believe people make decisions rationally, and property values is impacting immigration flows and population growth as we expected.